4.7 The Macro Calendar
Know which macro events move markets, when they happen, and how to trade around them (often by NOT trading around them).
Layer 4: Market Structure & Context — Chapter 7 Goal: Know which macro events move markets, when they happen, and how to trade around them (often by NOT trading around them).
The Core Idea
Markets don't just respond to charts. They respond to information events — Fed decisions, inflation reports, jobs numbers, earnings, geopolitical news. These events can override every technical setup on your chart.
Most retail losses around macro events come from being unaware of them. Knowing the calendar is the bare minimum. Knowing how to trade around it is an edge.
The Most Important Events (Tier 1)
These events can move the entire market, not just individual stocks.
1. FOMC Meetings (Federal Reserve)
- 8 per year (roughly every 6-7 weeks)
- 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday (announcement)
- 2:30 PM ET press conference (Powell speaking)
- Massive market impact
- VIX often spikes around these days
2. CPI (Consumer Price Index)
- Monthly, usually around the 10th-15th
- 8:30 AM ET
- Pre-market release
- Affects inflation expectations → rates → tech valuations
- Surprise misses cause massive moves
3. NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls)
- First Friday of the month
- 8:30 AM ET
- Job growth + unemployment + wages
- Big mover, especially for rate-sensitive assets
4. PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures)
- Monthly
- 8:30 AM ET
- Fed's preferred inflation measure
- Less press but more important to the Fed than CPI
5. GDP (Gross Domestic Product)
- Quarterly, with revisions
- 8:30 AM ET
- Headline economic growth number
6. PPI (Producer Price Index)
- Monthly
- 8:30 AM ET
- Wholesale inflation
- Often precedes CPI moves
Tier 2 Events (Important but Less Universal)
Retail Sales
- Monthly
- Indicates consumer health
- Moves consumer discretionary sector strongly
ISM Manufacturing PMI
- Monthly
- Forward-looking economic indicator
-
50 = expansion, < 50 = contraction
Initial Jobless Claims
- Weekly (Thursday morning)
- Quick read on labor market
- Usually shrugged off unless major change
Consumer Confidence (Conference Board, U Michigan)
- Monthly
- Sentiment indicator
- Moves consumer-facing names
Earnings Season
- Roughly 4-6 weeks each quarter
- Mid-January, mid-April, mid-July, mid-October
- Individual stocks move massively
- Whole sectors can re-rate based on aggregate results
FOMC: The Big One
This deserves its own section because of its outsized impact.
What Happens
- Statement released at 2:00 PM ET
- Press conference at 2:30 PM ET (Powell speaks)
- Markets react to statement first, then press conference
Why It Matters
- Determines short-term interest rates (Fed Funds)
- Influences future rate expectations
- Affects bond yields → tech valuations
- Currency reactions → multinationals
- Often the day's #1 market mover
Typical Patterns
Pre-FOMC Drift
- Often quiet/positive in the days before
- VIX may compress
- Volume light
FOMC Day Volatility
- Initial reaction to statement at 2:00 PM
- Often reverses during Powell's press conference
- "Powell shake" common — sharp moves both ways during the press conference
Post-FOMC Hangover
- Day after FOMC often sees continued volatility
- Don't assume the initial reaction is the "real" reaction
Trading Tip
Don't open new swing positions in the hours before FOMC. And reduce position size on existing ones if possible. The whipsaws aren't worth it.
CPI: The Inflation Mover
Why It Matters
- Inflation is the Fed's main concern
- Higher CPI → expectation of more hikes → bonds down, tech down
- Lower CPI → expectation of cuts → bonds up, tech up
- Often the second-biggest market mover after FOMC
Typical Reactions
CPI Hot (Higher Than Expected)
- Tech sells off
- Bonds drop (yields up)
- Dollar strengthens
- Gold often drops
CPI Cool (Lower Than Expected)
- Tech rallies
- Bonds rally
- Dollar weakens
- Risk-on across the board
Pre-CPI Strategy
- Reduce size or close swing positions
- Wait for the release
- Trade the reaction the next day (not in the 1-minute spike)
NFP: The Jobs Report
Why It Matters
- Strong jobs = economy strong = potentially more Fed hikes
- Weak jobs = recession risk
- Markets watch for revisions to prior months
- Wage growth (average hourly earnings) is the part that moves markets
Typical Reactions
NFP Hot
- Mixed: good for cyclicals (growth), bad for tech (rates)
- Bonds usually drop
- Dollar usually rallies
NFP Cool
- Mixed: growth concerns vs. lower rate expectations
- Often bullish for tech (lower rates)
- Often bearish for cyclicals (weaker economy)
Friday Morning Strategy
- NFP is at 8:30 AM ET on the first Friday of each month
- Don't trade in pre-market 30 min before
- Wait for the 9:30 open, see how the reaction settles
- The "second move" (after 10 AM) is often the real one
Earnings Season
A different kind of event — happens individually for each stock.
Schedule
- Q1 results: mid-April to mid-May
- Q2 results: mid-July to mid-August
- Q3 results: mid-October to mid-November
- Q4 results: mid-January to mid-February
How It Works
- Most companies report after market close (AMC) or before market open (BMO)
- Earnings call within an hour of release
- After-hours/pre-market price reaction
- Next day open shows the gap
Bellwethers
- Banks lead off (JPM, BAC, WFC)
- Tech follows (AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, NVDA)
- These set sector tone
Trading Around Earnings
Option 1: Don't Hold Through Earnings
- Most retail safest
- Close positions before report
- Re-evaluate after the dust settles
- Miss the gap, but also miss the gap-down risk
Option 2: Hold Through Earnings (Higher Risk)
- Reduce position size significantly
- Only do this on positions where you have high conviction
- Be prepared for 5-25% overnight moves
- Have stops set just for the next day
Option 3: PEAD (Post-Earnings Announcement Drift)
- Wait for earnings to be released
- Wait 1-3 days for initial reaction to settle
- Enter in the direction of the strong reaction (with confirmation)
- Hold for the 30-60 day drift
For swing traders, PEAD is the highest-edge earnings strategy.
Geopolitical Events
Categories
- Wars and major conflicts
- Elections (US, major economies)
- Trade disputes
- Sanctions
- Central bank decisions in other countries (ECB, BOJ)
- Pandemics, disasters
Trading Around Geo
- Often unpredictable
- VIX spikes
- Defensive sectors outperform
- Reduce risk in advance when known events approach (elections, summits)
- Stay flexible when unexpected events hit
How to Track the Calendar
Free Resources
- Investing.com Economic Calendar — most comprehensive
- TradingEconomics.com — clean interface
- ForexFactory.com — popular among traders
- Bloomberg — premium but excellent
Earnings Calendars
- EarningsWhispers.com — best for whisper numbers
- Yahoo Finance Calendar
- Earnings Hub
- Your broker's calendar (Robinhood has one)
Setup
- Bookmark 2-3 calendars
- Check Sunday evening: what's coming this week?
- Mark high-impact events on your trading journal
- Adjust position size or risk for those days
Trading Strategy Around Events
Pre-Event Rules
- Don't open new positions in the 1-3 days before major events
- Reduce size on existing positions if you can't close them
- Tighten stops OR widen them based on expected volatility
- Consider hedging with options or inverse ETFs
Day-Of Rules
- Don't trade the first 30-60 minutes after a major release
- Wait for the "second move" — the initial reaction often reverses
- Let the dust settle before committing capital
- Have a plan for both directions — don't react in real-time
Post-Event Rules
- Reassess the macro environment — has anything changed?
- Update biases based on the data
- Wait for clear setups rather than chasing the post-event move
What Moves What
CPI / PCE / Inflation Data
- Bonds (TLT): big mover
- Tech (XLK): big mover (inversely related to rates)
- Dollar (DXY): big mover
- Gold (GLD): big mover
NFP / Jobs
- Bonds: big mover
- Dollar: big mover
- Banks (XLF): notable (rate expectations)
- Cyclicals: notable
FOMC
- Everything moves. It's the king.
Earnings (Single Stock)
- The stock itself
- Sometimes the sector
- Often the broader market for mega-caps (AAPL, NVDA, etc.)
Common Mistakes
1. Trading Without Knowing What's Coming
Holding through earnings or FOMC without realizing it.
2. Treating the Initial Reaction as Final
Often the "second move" 30-60 minutes after is the real one.
3. Over-Position-Sized Through Events
A normal-size position becomes catastrophic with a 10% gap.
4. Ignoring Geopolitical Risk
Wars, elections, central bank surprises can override charts.
5. Trading in the First 30 Minutes Post-News
Whipsaws are extreme. Wait.
6. Chasing the Gap
Buying into a 5% gap up at the open. Reversals common.
A Mental Model
Macro events are like weather events for the market:
- Predicted storms (scheduled events) — you can prepare
- Unexpected storms (geopolitical surprises) — adapt fast
- Drizzle (minor data) — barely notice
- Hurricane (FOMC + war + crisis) — find shelter
Trading without checking the macro calendar is like leaving for a beach trip without checking the forecast.
Practical Takeaways
-
Always know what major events are coming this week.
-
FOMC, CPI, NFP, GDP are top-tier movers. Mark them on your calendar.
-
Don't hold normal-size positions through earnings. Reduce or close.
-
Wait for the "second move" after major releases.
-
PEAD is the highest-edge earnings strategy for swing traders.
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Geopolitical events override charts. Be flexible.
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The first 30 minutes after major news are often noise, not signal.
Quick Self-Check
Before moving to 4.8, you should be able to answer:
- When does FOMC release and announce decisions?
- What is CPI and why does it move tech?
- When is NFP released?
- What sectors are most affected by inflation data?
- What's the difference between holding through earnings and trading PEAD?
- Why is the "second move" after news often more reliable?
- What should you do in the 1-3 days before FOMC?
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